Monday, November 03, 2008

Cards on the table

OK, just for the hell of it...

My vision of what the map will look like Tuesday night/Wednesday morning:



Obama gets 53%, McCain 46%, and 'etc.' 1% of the popular vote.

The Democrats end up with 58 senators.

Proposition 8 is narrowly defeated.

And a spirit of peace, love and reconciliation pervades the land.

This is an optimistic forecast, I know, but...well, why not?

The only thing that might seem perverse about my electoral map is putting Georgia in Obama's column, but I was intrigued by Nate Silver's comment earlier today:

If there's one state where Obama is likely to overperform his polls, it's in Georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are African-American, and where almost 30 percent of them did not vote in 2004. These are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by "likely voter" models that rely on past voting history. Obama could not only carry the state, but he might help boost Jim Martin to victory in the U.S. Senate race there—giving the Democrats a plausible path to a 60-seat caucus.


I have no idea whether that's true or not, but I'm going with it.

That's just the kind of maverick I am.

You betcha.

If this proves wildly inaccurate, then you are all free, of course, to continue ignoring my opinions.

Sleep well, Democrats: you may have a long wait in line tomorrow.

(Map made at RealClearPolitics.)

5 comments:

Christoph said...

With Sanders and Lieberman?

J. Carter Wood said...

With Sanders but without Lieberman.

Sharon said...

Your rcp map is almost exactly the same as mine. (I've got Georgia and Missouri the other way round, I think.) Great minds, etc etc.

J. Carter Wood said...

Missouri is a tough call...it's possible, also, that Indiana will go the other way (i.e., to Obama), which would please me to no end, not least since I have a family member there whom I hope will be

I suspect North Carolina, Florida and Georgia, even if they do go as predicted, are going to be close.

I can't believe this is almost over.

Christoph said...

I can't believe this is almost over.

Don't you worry. 2010 will rear its beautous head soon enough. "Nach der Wahl ist vor der Wahl", as the saying goes. Also if Stevens wins there will almost certainly be a special election.